Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 211
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Today
XL 211 · MIA → GEO
departs 8:45 AM ET · arrives 1:18 PM -04
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at GEO more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
22h
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at GEO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEO?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into GEO at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
GEO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.