Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 214
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
XL 214 · UIO → MIA
departs 9:29 AM -05 · arrives 2:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
23h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
UIO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.