YV 4013 · BHM → IAH

departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 7:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BHM are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4013 · BHM → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?