Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4013 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

YV 4013 · BHM → IAH

departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 7:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from BHM are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4013 · BHM → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?