YV 4054 · IAH → MEM

departs 4:28 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4054 · IAH → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?