Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 3712 · EWR → MSN
departs 8:56 AM ET · arrives 10:31 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.