Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
YX 3712 · EWR → MSN
departs 9:00 AM ET · arrives 10:52 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.