YX 4444 · DCA → MEM

departs 3:39 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4444 · DCA → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?