YX 4508 · DCA → STL

left the gate 11:09 AM ET · taxiing (scheduled 11:10 AM ET → 12:43 PM CT)

Your aircraft is N120HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4679 from ATL: landed 9:55 AM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ STL is prone to delays

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4508 · DCA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?