Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4580 · CHS → LGA
departs 6:04 AM ET · arrives 8:13 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 6%
Sat 10/10 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from CHS are usually not late
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.