Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4789 · DCA → ECP
departs 11:12 AM ET · arrives 12:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ECP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ECP?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ECP (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.