YX 4790 · DCA → ILM

departs 8:22 AM ET · arrives 10:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,067 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4790 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?