AS 853 · SEA → HNL

departs 8:58 AM PT · arrives 11:56 AM HT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at HNL that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 853 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?