Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow
IB 212 · JFK → MAD
departs 5:09 PM ET · arrives 6:01 AM CEST
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 18%
Sat 10/10 19%
Sun 10/11 22%
Mon 10/12 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.