Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
IB 212 · JFK → MAD
departs 5:11 PM ET · arrives 5:55 AM CEST
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 19%
Sun 10/11 22%
Mon 10/12 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Arrivals into MAD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.