Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow
IB 381 · MAD → SJU
departs 1:04 PM CEST · arrives 3:53 PM AT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 23%
Sat 10/10 25%
Sun 10/11 24%
Mon 10/12 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
Weather at each end
MAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.