Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
IB 381 · MAD → SJU
departs 12:46 PM CEST · arrives 3:35 PM AT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/7 18%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 25%
Sun 10/11 24%
Mon 10/12 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.