Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
MQ 3731 · JAX → DCA
departs 5:57 AM ET · arrives 8:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 8%
Sat 10/10 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
5am departures from JAX are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.39 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.