Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow
MX 1400 · RDU → MCO
departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 5:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 37%
Sat 10/10 27%
Sun 10/11 32%
Mon 10/12 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.