Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
MX 1400 · RDU → MCO
departs 3:34 PM ET · arrives 5:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/7 30%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 27%
Sun 10/11 32%
Mon 10/12 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.