Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 6040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
TK 6040 · UIO → MIA
departs 7:08 PM -05 · arrives 12:06 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
UIO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.