Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 2146 · MCO → MHT
departs 5:14 PM ET · arrives 8:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 50%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.83 in
MHT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.