Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2577
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 2577 · MCO → DCA
departs 10:22 AM ET · arrives 12:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,133 ft forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,133 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.