Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4732
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
YX 4732 · MEM → DCA
departs 6:03 AM CT · arrives 9:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 6%
Sat 10/10 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MEM is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.