Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5713
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
YX 5713 · JFK → DCA
departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 4:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 22%
Sat 10/10 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.