Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5204 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 8

9E 5204 · LGA → ILM

departs 7:51 PM ET · arrives 9:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5204 · LGA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?