AA 3131 · ORD → MSP

departs 12:03 PM CT · arrives 1:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3131 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?