AS 853 · SEA → HNL

departs 8:59 AM PT · arrives 12:11 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 853 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?