Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CARIBBEAN AIRLINES · FLIGHT BW 481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
BW 481 · FLL → POS
departs 4:25 PM ET · arrives 8:12 PM AST
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at POS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at POS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at POS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to POS?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at FLL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from FLL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at POS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
POS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.