Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ETHIOPIAN · FLIGHT ET 3501 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:33 PM PT, ETA 8:35 AM CEST) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Thursday, October 8 Today

ET 3501 · LAX → LGG

took off 1:33 PM PT · expected to land 8:35 AM CEST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LGG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Arrivals into LGG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

LGG (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 3501 · LAX → LGG

Odds over time