Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 766
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
MX 766 · TPA → RDU
departs 7:01 AM ET · arrives 9:04 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 10%
Sun 10/11 10%
Mon 10/12 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.13 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.