Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2725
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
PD 2725 · YTZ → IAD
departs 1:31 PM EDT · arrives 3:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
YTZ is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.