Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
PT 5866 · PHL → ORH
departs 3:24 PM ET · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 11%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 20%
Sun 10/11 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
ORH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORH (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.