Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2188
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
QX 2188 · EUG → SEA
departs 1:18 PM PT · arrives 2:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/7 27%
Thu 10/8
Sat 10/10 25%
Sun 10/11 31%
Mon 10/12 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1pm departures from EUG are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at EUG that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EUG (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.