Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 10
9X 501 · OGG → KOA
departs 6:38 AM HT · arrives 8:04 AM HT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Sat 10/10
Tue 10/13 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at KOA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to KOA?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9X's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
6am departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
KOA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.