Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 15SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
AS 15 · DCA → SAN
departs 11:16 AM ET · arrives 1:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 155h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Saturday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
20%chance · ±4 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.