Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 10
OO 4833 · LWB → ORD
departs 4:26 PM ET · arrives 5:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/9 44%
Sat 10/10
Sun 10/11 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LWB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LWB (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.