Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
9X 809 · IPL → PHX
departs 9:48 AM PT · arrives 11:56 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave IPL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 35 kt forecast at PHX that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
IPL (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 35 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.