Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
9X 809 · IPL → PHX
departs 9:48 AM PT · arrives 11:40 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IPL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IPL is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
9am departures from IPL are usually not late
Weather at each end
IPL (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.