AA 1089 · MIA → BGI

took off 11:26 AM ET · expected to land 2:47 PM AST (scheduled 11:11 AM ET → 3:11 PM AST)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BGI more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BGI?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Arrivals into BGI at that hour are usually not late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.84 in

BGI (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1089 · MIA → BGI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGI?