AA 1263 · PHL → LAS

took off 7:12 AM ET · expected to land 8:50 AM PT (scheduled 6:59 AM ET → 9:38 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.97 in

LAS (destination) Gusts35 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1263 · PHL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?