AA 1300 · MIA → GCM

took off 10:50 AM ET · landed 10:56 AM EST (scheduled 10:22 AM ET → 11:05 AM EST)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at GCM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GCM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into GCM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.84 in

GCM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1300 · MIA → GCM

Odds over time

How late did it get to GCM?