AA 1643 · MCO → DCA

departs 2:11 PM ET · arrives 4:34 PM ET

Your aircraft is N832AW (A319).

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.91 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1643 · MCO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?