AA 1956 · LAS → PHX

took off 11:40 AM PT · landed 12:27 PM MT (scheduled 9:20 AM PT → 10:39 AM MT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.04 in

PHX (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1956 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?