AA 2217 · MIA → AUA

departs 1:08 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM AST

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at AUA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into AUA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.87 in

AUA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2217 · MIA → AUA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUA?