AA 2221 · LGA → RDU

left the gate 9:57 AM ET · taxiing (scheduled 9:53 AM ET → 11:36 AM ET)

Your aircraft is N741UW (A319), coming in as AA 1722 from CLT: landed 6:02 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.91 in

RDU (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2221 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?