AA 2221 · RDU → LGA

took off 1:54 PM ET · landed 2:54 PM ET (scheduled 12:20 PM ET → 1:58 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.06 mi Precip0.46 in

LGA (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling780 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2221 · RDU → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?