AA 2411 · CLT → SFO

departs 7:04 AM ET · arrives 9:24 AM PT

Your aircraft is N934AA (A321), coming in as AAL2976 from ORD: landed 2:28 AM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.95 in

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2411 · CLT → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?