AA 2419 · MIA → PUJ

took off 10:22 AM ET · expected to land 12:19 PM AST (scheduled 10:04 AM ET → 12:36 PM AST)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PUJ more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PUJ?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PUJ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.84 in

PUJ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2419 · MIA → PUJ

Odds over time

How late will it get to PUJ?