AA 2853 · MIA → PHL

took off 4:24 PM ET · expected to land 6:30 PM ET (scheduled 3:59 PM ET → 6:57 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.84 in

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2853 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?